In the quest for sustainable yachting, accurately predicting energy consumption has been a persistent challenge. This is where my graduate project, awarded the Maritime Designer of the Year 2022, made a breakthrough by introducing a novel methodology to bridge the gap between predicted and actual energy usage. Leveraging Grey-Box Modelling (GBM), my approach combined physics-based White-Box Models (WBM) and data-driven Black-Box Models (BBM) to deliver unprecedented accuracy and insights.
Key Highlights of the Project
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Real Operational Data Utilization:
Using 10 months of voyage data from a Feadship yacht, coupled with weather and voyage details, the model achieved prediction errors of just 3% for propulsion power and 7% for auxiliary power under real-world conditions.
- Innovative Methodology:
- Developed a sequential modelling process integrating WBMs for different power components.
- Utilized Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to scale predictions for operational conditions.
- Created modular frameworks adaptable to various maritime applications.
- Advantages of Grey-Box Modelling:
- Improved Accuracy: Outperformed both standalone WBMs and BBMs in prediction reliability.
- Better Extrapolation: Retained critical physical dynamics, enhancing performance in unseen scenarios.
- Adaptability: Modular design accommodated multiple data types and operational profiles.
Why This Matters
The maritime industry’s push toward sustainability demands tools that align design predictions with operational realities. My research demonstrated that combining physics-based insights with data-driven models not only boosts prediction accuracy but also provides a deeper understanding of energy consumption patterns.
Looking Ahead
This project paves the way for:
- Sustainable Yacht Design: Providing designers with reliable early-stage tools to optimize energy usage.
- Real-Time Optimization: Adapting the methodology for operational decision-making.
- Scalable Applications: Expanding to other vessels, ensuring broader industry adoption.
By bridging the gap between prediction and reality, this Grey-Box approach is a step toward greener, more efficient yachting—a critical need in our fight against climate change.
Links to open-access publications
This work was awarded the Maritime Designer of the Year Award 2022 in the Netherlands, recognizing its significant contribution to the field.
Peer-Reviewd Journal Link
Full MSc. Thesis Link